Final Countdown for Emile Lahoud

[AGM]

The ball is now in Emile Lahoud's camp.

Be sure that marching to Baabda will be our LAST ALTERNATIVE.

Yalla. Things will accelerate very fast in the coming 25 days. Enjoy the ride.

All legal and constitutional methods will be used to oust him before having to use demonstrations. So, my advise to those who are opposed to getting rid of Lahoud. Build up your legal and constitutional answer, before threatening of a counter-popular reaction.

The issue could also be more interesting than just the Presidency at a long-run perspective. It can be the 1st time in Lebanese history that the "Lebanese genius", playing the legal and constitutional tricks will appear. It's excellent for democracy, excellent for the rule of law.

And even if we arrive to the level of popular demonstrations marching to Baabda. What then?
Does anyone think that Lahoud is able to ask the Presidential Guard to open fire ? Can he afford it ? Seriously ? Can a President who lost any residue of internal and international legitimacy afford asking the Presidential Guard to open fire on hundreds of thousands of his own people ? - Welcome Milosevic's and Chevardnadze's souvenir. Be sure that when they were ousted, Milosevic, Chevardnadze and Ianoukovitch had more support than Lahoud.

Even if he does order the Presidential Guard to open fire, will they obey?
Even if the Presidential Guard does obey, with dozens of casualties, and if Lahoud stays in place until the end of his term in November 2007. What after ? What will he do on November-25 2007? Where will he hide from Lebanese anger? In Syria? In the Pacific? Can he afford such disgrace?


So, if FPM or Amal decide to join us, and add the extra 14 votes we need to get Lahoud out, fine. It would be more than great.
If they manage to convince Lahoud of resigning, that would be great.

But we don't need that anymore.
The momentum has changed. At least for the coming months.

Even if nothing succeeds until March-14, tell me what are the options of Lahoud on that day. He cannot do ANYTHING to face us.
Be sure that the first bullet shot by the army against the hypothetic demonstrators, is a political bullet shot directly into Lahoud's heart.
In order to take such a decision, he must have serious back-up. I'm sure he cannot count on ANYBODY.

Would Hezbollah supporters organise a counter-demonstration in Baabda to arrest us, and would they defend Lahoud by using their weapons???
Let us be serious, this would destroy the whole argumentation built and spread by Hezbollah. It would definitely destroy their legitimacy.
Are they fighting to recover the lands or the detainees, or to protect the filthiest president in Lebanese history, only to preserve their privileges?

Be sure that Hezbollah's wisdom is great. They would absolutely not bet on the weakest horse in the Lebanese political scene: Emile Lahoud.
They won't endanger their cause for such a weak cause: Emile Lahoud.
Believe me that Hezbollah knows that Lahoud is not worth sacrificing their position for him.

It's really like a chess game, where the Check-Mate is inevitable.
Lahoud may try to use his final cards, but he knows that his days at Baabda are counted.
Enjoy the countdown!

Lahoud is in front of 2 options: RESIGNATION or FINAL POLITICAL SUICIDE.
Let he decide.

Regards

[mehdi soldier]

Originally Posted by AGM

The ball is now in Emile Lahoud's camp.

Be sure that marching to Baabda will be our LAST ALTERNATIVE.

Yalla. Things will accelerate very fast in the coming 25 days. Enjoy the ride.

All legal and constitutional methods will be used to oust him before having to use demonstrations. So, my advise to those who are opposed to getting rid of Lahoud. Build up your legal and constitutional answer, before threatening of a counter-popular reaction.

The issue could also be more interesting than just the Presidency at a long-run perspective. It can be the 1st time in Lebanese history that the "Lebanese genius", playing the legal and constitutional tricks will appear. It's excellent for democracy, excellent for the rule of law.

And even if we arrive to the level of popular demonstrations marching to Baabda. What then?
Does anyone think that Lahoud is able to ask the Presidential Guard to open fire ? Can he afford it ? Seriously ? Can a President who lost any residue of internal and international legitimacy afford asking the Presidential Guard to open fire on hundreds of thousands of his own people ? - Welcome Milosevic's and Chevardnadze's souvenir. Be sure that when they were ousted, Milosevic, Chevardnadze and Ianoukovitch had more support than Lahoud.

Even if he does order the Presidential Guard to open fire, will they obey?
Even if the Presidential Guard does obey, with dozens of casualties, and if Lahoud stays in place until the end of his term in November 2007. What after ? What will he do on November-25 2007? Where will he hide from Lebanese anger? In Syria? In the Pacific? Can he afford such disgrace?


So, if FPM or Amal decide to join us, and add the extra 14 votes we need to get Lahoud out, fine. It would be more than great.
If they manage to convince Lahoud of resigning, that would be great.

But we don't need that anymore.
The momentum has changed. At least for the coming months.

Even if nothing succeeds until March-14, tell me what are the options of Lahoud on that day. He cannot do ANYTHING to face us.
Be sure that the first bullet shot by the army against the hypothetic demonstrators, is a political bullet shot directly into Lahoud's heart.
In order to take such a decision, he must have serious back-up. I'm sure he cannot count on ANYBODY.

Would Hezbollah supporters organise a counter-demonstration in Baabda to arrest us, and would they defend Lahoud by using their weapons???
Let us be serious, this would destroy the whole argumentation built and spread by Hezbollah. It would definitely destroy their legitimacy.
Are they fighting to recover the lands or the detainees, or to protect the filthiest president in Lebanese history, only to preserve their privileges?

Be sure that Hezbollah's wisdom is great. They would absolutely not bet on the weakest horse in the Lebanese political scene: Emile Lahoud.
They won't endanger their cause for such a weak cause: Emile Lahoud.
Believe me that Hezbollah knows that Lahoud is not worth sacrificing their position for him.

It's really like a chess game, where the Check-Mate is inevitable.
Lahoud may try to use his final cards, but he knows that his days at Baabda are counted.
Enjoy the countdown!

Lahoud is in front of 2 options: RESIGNATION or FINAL POLITICAL SUICIDE.
Let he decide.

Regards

why do you want to march to baabda?for a peaceful protest or to stage a coup? is this what we are waiting for in lebanon?a coup?wallah lahood is a good man.otherwise he can use saddam tactics.walid jinn and his friends will be shouting from exile.

[Saidon]

Originally Posted by mehdi soldier

why do you want to march to baabda?for a peaceful protest or to stage a coup? is this what we are waiting for in lebanon?a coup?wallah lahood is a good man.otherwise he can use saddam tactics.walid jinn and his friends will be shouting from exile.

Lahoud will Leave Baabda . Lahoud don't represent anyone in lebanon even hasan Nasrollah did not defend him yesterday . If u or any other Lebanese have a little bit of dignity u should go and kick him out ... Well u will tell me that he supported the resistence !!! "Maybe "but today he is a huge stone over the shoulders of the resistence .Didn't u feel sorry when u saw him in united states talking to himself in an empty conference room.... Why you are still supporting him ?Wasn't he the man who offered terry rod larsen wissam elarez elwatani ?Wasn' he the man who declare that sheb3a is not Lebanese (go back to the memo which he send to the united nations ) ? and finally just to be fair wasn't he is the main reason of hariri's assisnation ?

[the_ocean_wave]

yalla ya la7oud esta2eel bel mnee7 aw 7atshouf shi ma ra7 ye3jbak abadan la 2annak 7a tkhalleena nseer rezleen ma3ak

[AGM]

Originally Posted by mehdi soldier

why do you want to march to baabda?for a peaceful protest or to stage a coup? is this what we are waiting for in lebanon?a coup?wallah lahood is a good man.otherwise he can use saddam tactics.walid jinn and his friends will be shouting from exile.

It is everything but a coup.
The only coup that took place was Lahoud's term extension in September 2004. That was the only coup, against the popular will, the Constitution, the International law, sovereignety, democracy, dignity.

Lahoud has ZERO legitimacy, so getting rid of him would bring back the Constitution on track and would eliminate the results of the coup that happened.

We offer him to resign as soon as possible.
If he still has grammes of dignity, he cannot accept to stay in his place one more second. But it's clear he hasn't.

We'll use all DEMOCRATIC means to oust him. We will prove that his extension was illegal and unconstitutional, and therefore null and void. The Presidency chair shall then be considered as vacant, which will put the Parliament under the binding constitutional obligation of immediately organising a session to elect his successor.

If Speaker Berri doesn't want to organise the session at that moment, the Constitution and the internal law of the Parliament, give full rights for the deputy-Speaker, Mr. Farid Makari, to preside the session and organise the elections.

There are no more way-outs for Lahoud. So let him decide.

Regards

[beiruti_o7]

Originally Posted by AGM

In order to take such a decision, he must have serious back-up. I'm sure he cannot count on ANYBODY.

but cant syria/iran offer the needed backup?
very nice analysis by the way

[AGM]

Originally Posted by beiruti_o7

but cant syria/iran offer the needed backup?
very nice analysis by the way

Thanks. But tell me what back-up will they provide him??

[Danny Z]

Originally Posted by AGM

The ball is now in Emile Lahoud's camp.

Be sure that marching to Baabda will be our LAST ALTERNATIVE.

Yalla. Things will accelerate very fast in the coming 25 days. Enjoy the ride.

All legal and constitutional methods will be used to oust him before having to use demonstrations. So, my advise to those who are opposed to getting rid of Lahoud. Build up your legal and constitutional answer, before threatening of a counter-popular reaction.

The issue could also be more interesting than just the Presidency at a long-run perspective. It can be the 1st time in Lebanese history that the "Lebanese genius", playing the legal and constitutional tricks will appear. It's excellent for democracy, excellent for the rule of law.

And even if we arrive to the level of popular demonstrations marching to Baabda. What then?
Does anyone think that Lahoud is able to ask the Presidential Guard to open fire ? Can he afford it ? Seriously ? Can a President who lost any residue of internal and international legitimacy afford asking the Presidential Guard to open fire on hundreds of thousands of his own people ? - Welcome Milosevic's and Chevardnadze's souvenir. Be sure that when they were ousted, Milosevic, Chevardnadze and Ianoukovitch had more support than Lahoud.

Even if he does order the Presidential Guard to open fire, will they obey?
Even if the Presidential Guard does obey, with dozens of casualties, and if Lahoud stays in place until the end of his term in November 2007. What after ? What will he do on November-25 2007? Where will he hide from Lebanese anger? In Syria? In the Pacific? Can he afford such disgrace?


So, if FPM or Amal decide to join us, and add the extra 14 votes we need to get Lahoud out, fine. It would be more than great.
If they manage to convince Lahoud of resigning, that would be great.

But we don't need that anymore.
The momentum has changed. At least for the coming months.

Even if nothing succeeds until March-14, tell me what are the options of Lahoud on that day. He cannot do ANYTHING to face us.
Be sure that the first bullet shot by the army against the hypothetic demonstrators, is a political bullet shot directly into Lahoud's heart.
In order to take such a decision, he must have serious back-up. I'm sure he cannot count on ANYBODY.

Would Hezbollah supporters organise a counter-demonstration in Baabda to arrest us, and would they defend Lahoud by using their weapons???
Let us be serious, this would destroy the whole argumentation built and spread by Hezbollah. It would definitely destroy their legitimacy.
Are they fighting to recover the lands or the detainees, or to protect the filthiest president in Lebanese history, only to preserve their privileges?

Be sure that Hezbollah's wisdom is great. They would absolutely not bet on the weakest horse in the Lebanese political scene: Emile Lahoud.
They won't endanger their cause for such a weak cause: Emile Lahoud.
Believe me that Hezbollah knows that Lahoud is not worth sacrificing their position for him.

It's really like a chess game, where the Check-Mate is inevitable.
Lahoud may try to use his final cards, but he knows that his days at Baabda are counted.
Enjoy the countdown!

Lahoud is in front of 2 options: RESIGNATION or FINAL POLITICAL SUICIDE.
Let he decide.

Regards

You're dead wrong
Walking into the presidential palace is called a coup, and yes they will fire and it is constitutional self defence, people can warned and if they don't retreat first they will be sprayed with water from firetruck hoses which should stop them but even if it doesn't stop them and they start walking inside the palace the presidential guard can fire in self defence, that's legal.
But my guess they will not fire, they will let them walk in and lahoud will not be there, he will be away and the marchers will appear as people destroying public property (does this remind you of Lati bank?).
If however they destitute by force (without resignation) The parliament will not have the right to elect another president because legally we already have one so it is a coup if they still elect one, but before that happens, since it is a coup part of the army will stand with the coup and part against, hezbolla will have to take its side (probably with lahoud) and 14 march will be against Aoun's block which has some popular support.
In other words we are going towards a civil war. Unlike Romania's Ceausescu or Serbia's Milosevic, Removing Lahoud is not a national consensus.
That's the main difference that will lead to civil war.

[Danny Z]

Originally Posted by AGM

Lahoud has ZERO legitimacy, so getting rid of him would bring back the Constitution on track and would eliminate the results of the coup that happened.

Since you are a political student, you know that legitimate and constitutional are two differnt concept, Lahoud has 0 legitimacy but his election is 100% constitutional.
If you want to talk about legitimacy, then maybe we should discuss how legitimate are the deputies of Baabda Aley and those of North Lebanon...They are constitutionally elected but do not necessarily represent their constituencies. Should we also march on Nayla Moawad's home because she does not represent the Zgharta district? Or should we force the Baabda Aley people to resign and elect again in this area?

[idaho]

Originally Posted by Danny Z

Since you are a political student, you know that legitimate and constitutional are two differnt concept, Lahoud has 0 legitimacy but his election is 100% constitutional.
If you want to talk about legitimacy, then maybe we should discuss how legitimate are the deputies of Baabda Aley and those of North Lebanon...They are constitutionally elected but do not necessarily represent their constituencies. Should we also march on Nayla Moawad's home because she does not represent the Zgharta district? Or should we force the Baabda Aley people to resign and elect again in this area?

What constituency are you talking about?
Nayla was elected by the people of her constituency in the North. Full Stop!
The same applies to Baabda Aley.
Lahoud's election is 0% constitutional because it was done under duress.